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This week’s focus: central bank decisions, earnings and the US election campaign

Capital markets will be focussing on three major monetary policy decisions over the next few days. Although no interest rate hike is expected, the US Federal Reserve is likely to attract the most interest on Wednesday evening. The markets see a greater likelihood of an interest rate adjustment from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England, which will announce their decisions on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The election campaign in the US is also likely to be followed with great interest. Following the recent profit-taking in technology stocks, the quarterly figures from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Intel will also take centre stage this week. 

Date
Author
Alessandro Fezzi, LGT Research Content & Publications
Reading time
5 minutes

US dollar bill with Federal Reserve signa

On Asia's stock markets, most indices rose on Monday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 leading the gains in the region. The Nikkei rose 2.3%, ending an eight-day losing streak. Among the biggest gainers in the Nikkei index was carmaker Mitsubishi Motors (+6%) after media reported that the company would join the Honda-Nissan alliance to standardise vehicle software. The broader Topix gained 2%. The Japanese yen gained just under 0.2% against the US dollar and is currently trading at 153.40. The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting in the middle of this week is now eagerly awaited. According to surveys, the BoJ could raise interest rates by ten basis points to 0.1%. The South Korean Kospi gained 1.3% at the start of the week, while the small-cap Kosdaq index rose by 0.6%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong climbed 1.1%, while the CSI 300 in mainland China slipped 0.3%, mainly due to utility stocks. The Australian S&P/ASX 200 rose by 0.8%.

Tech stocks recover slightly

On the New York Stock Exchange, tech stocks recovered somewhat from their recent losses on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 gained around 1% but fell by just under 2.6% over the week - the third consecutive week of losses. The Dow Jones ended last week with a daily gain of 1.6% at 40,589.34 points and the S&P 500 rose by 1.1% to 5,459.10 points.

Hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates soon provided a boost

As reported on Friday, consumer spending in the US rose by 0.3% in June compared to the previous month, as expected. At the same time, private household incomes rose more slowly than expected. A month-on-month increase of 0.2% was observed. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.4%. The core PCE index, the US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation barometer, remained unchanged at 2.6% in June, higher than the 2.5% anticipated by analysts. The latest data tends to favour a further wait-and-see approach by the Fed next Wednesday. The market currently anticipates a 90% probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points in September.

In addition, the mood of American consumers remains gloomy. The consumer sentiment barometer published by the University of Michigan fell by 1.8 points to 66.4 points in July compared to the previous month, the lowest level in eight months. On the US bond market, the yield on ten-year US government bonds fell to 4.2% as a result and the US dollar weakened against the euro.

Unchanged inflation expectations in the eurozone 

According to a recent survey by the European Central Bank (ECB), inflation expectations among consumers in the eurozone remained unchanged in June. According to the survey, consumers expect inflation of 2.8% over the next year, meaning that inflation expectations remained at their lowest level since September 2021. Expectations for the next three years have not changed either. According to the ECB, an inflation rate of 2.3% is expected in this period. The data is based on the results of a monthly online survey (Consumer Expectations Survey) of almost 20,000 consumers in eleven countries. The inflation rate in the eurozone had recently been trending downwards and totalled 2.5% in June. This means that inflation is once again approaching the ECB's medium-term target of two per cent. The markets are expecting the next interest rate easing in September.

Expected interest rate hike 

Russia's central bank raised its key interest rate from 16% to 18%, the highest level since March 2022, considering increasing inflation risks. This rate hike was expected. At the same time, the inflation forecast was raised significantly. The central bank expects consumer price inflation of 6.5-7.0% by the end of the year (previously 4.3-4.8%). The most recent inflation rate was 8.5% in June.

Corporate news in focus: Second-quarter figures from McDonald’s, Welltower.

Economic data in focus: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index.

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Publisher: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd., Glärnischstrasse 36, CH-8027 Zurich
Editor: Alessandro Fezzi
Source: LGT Bank (Switzerland) Ltd.

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